Kyoto

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
from Kyoto to Doha, Qatar

Since the Kyoto Protocol which came into force February 2005, disagreements at subsequent international meetings (Copenhagen, Cancun etc.) have indicated that at the governmental level, ability to bring climate change under control is failing. With global warming accelerating and rising carbon emissions, the world is moving too slowly to prevent serious damage to the ecosystem on which life depends. This raises prospects of rising sea-levels, food shortages and increasingly extreme weather disasters such as floods and droughts which have occurred with greater frequency, particularly since 2010.

Hope may rest increasingly on initiatives by other organizations such as IRENA, the C40 cities imitative, and actions by business leaders and entrepreneurs to act where governments, especially Canada and the USA, which are deadlocked and subject to pressure from “Business-as-Usual” energy corporations which have led to a virtual paralysis in leadership.

May 3 2013: Alternative approach to Kyoto will probably fail. A U.S.-led plan to let all countries set their own goals for fighting climate change is gaining grudging support at U.N. talks, even though the current level of pledges is far too low to limit rising temperatures substantially. The approach, being discussed this week at 160-nation talks in Bonn, Germany, would mean abandoning the blueprint of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set central goals for industrialized countries to cut emissions by 2012 and then let each work out national implementation. Attempts to agree a successor to Kyoto have foundered above all on a failure to agree on the contribution that developing countries should make to curbing the industrial emissions responsible for global warming - greenhouse gases. President Barack Obama's administration now says each nation should define its "contribution" to a new U.N. accord - a weaker word than past U.S. demands for national "commitments". The next ministerial conference to try to reach a deal is scheduled for Paris in 2015. However, all sides say the initial national promises will be insufficient to rein in greenhouse gases. link

What happens next?

The Doha conference reached an agreement to extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol until 2020, meaning that a successor to the Protocol is set to be developed by 2015 and implemented by 2020. UNFCCCC's 19th Conference of the Parties (COP-19) will take place in a country in Poland late 2013.

Other pages on international actions:

IRENA International Renewal Energy Association
Other initiatives - C-40Cities / Branson's Carbon War Room / Rio+20 :

Below:

History of Kyoto
Doha - COP 18 talks
COP 17 - Durban 2011
Between Cancun and Durban
Why Copenhagen talks failed
Actions around the world in 2010

History of Kyoto

Background. The series of annual UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) talks can trace its roots to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro,

Brazil

. In 1997 it spawned the Kyoto Protocol which was initially adopted on December 11, 1997 and entered into force on February 16, 2005. It is a protocol to the UNFCCC and as of January 2009, 183 parties had ratified the protocol (though not the

USA

). Under this Protocol, industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 5.2% from the level in 1990. The Kyoto Protocol established legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride. (See Severn Suzuki's speech at the Rio conference here)

Kyoto extended after 2012: A second commitment period will begin on January 1, 2013 and end December 31, 2020. This period will bridge the gap between the end of the first commitment period and the beginning of the next legally binding climate agreement, to be created in the Durban Platform track, which is set to be finished in 2015 and take effect in 2020.

What is the Kyoto Protocol?
With 191 member states, the U.N. accord is the only global treaty with binding limits on climate-altering greenhouse gases. The treaty commits nearly 40 developed "Annex 1" nations that emit around a quarter of the world's emissions to cut them domestically by an average 5% by 2012 from 1990 levels. The protocol's first leg runs out Dec. 31 2012, and the Doha talks must agree on the modalities of a second commitment period from 2013, a move agreed upon at the last round of U.N. climate talks in South Africa a year ago. The key issues in Doha are how long the second commitment period should last, who will back it and what targets to set.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, say that 97% to 98% of climate researchers actively publishing in the field of climate change agree with the main conclusions of the IPCC that most of the “unequivocal” warming of the average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century is because of people. link

What is the IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme the (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. It is endorsed by the UN General Assembly.
The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO. Currently 194 countries are members of the IPCC. Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions. link to IPCC

November 2012: Next IPCC report will shock nations into action. The next United Nations IPCC climate report (due to be published in late 2013 and early 2014), will ''scare the wits out of everyone'' and should provide the impetus needed for the world to finally sign an agreement to tackle global warming according to the former IPCC head Yvo de Boer, saying "I'm confident those scientific findings will create new political momentum.'' link

Doha - COP 18 talks - December 2012

2012 DOHA TALKS CONCLUDE:

December 2012. The controversial and ineffective Kyoto Protocol's first stage comes to an end today, leaving the world with 58% more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the 5% reduction its signatories sought. The Kyoto protocol was adopted in 1997, but didn't to come into force until 2005. In the intervening eight years, countries set reduction targets for themselves and ratified the agreement. link

December 8: Few genuine cuts in greenhouse gases result from Doha talks. The summit established for the first time that rich nations should move towards compensating poor nations for losses due to climate change. Developing nations hailed it as a breakthrough, but condemned the gulf between the science of climate change and political attempts to tackle it. The deal, agreed by nearly 200 nations, extends to 2020 the Kyoto Protocol. It is the only legally-binding plan for combating global warming. The deal covers Europe and Australia, whose share of world greenhouse gas emissions is less than 15%. But the conference also cleared the way for the Kyoto protocol to be replaced by a new treaty binding all rich and poor nations together by 2015 to tackle climate change. The final text "encourages" rich nations to mobilise at least $10bn a year up to 2020, when the new global climate agreement is due to kick in. link
December 8: Doha talks end today in colossal failure. Not only have the negotiations failed to produce any meaningful emissions cuts, but ‘Hot Air’ permits that allow countries like Poland and Russia to maintain their heavy industries may even result in more emissions. Talks have stalled for a host of reasons, though most developing nations blame rich countries like the United States, Canada and Japan for refusing to sign an interim successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol that would bind them to emissions reductions. link
December 8 2012: Kyoto Protocol survives. At the UN’s annual climate change conference just concluded in Doha, 194 countries agreed to an extension of the Kyoto Protocol through 2020. But the second phase still omits the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas emitters, China and the United States. Without agreement at Doha the protocol would have expired in just 23 days. Governments agreed to work toward a universal climate change agreement covering all countries from 2020, to be adopted by 2015, and to find ways to scale up efforts before 2020 beyond the existing pledges to curb emissions. link

November 2012: Doubts on $30 billion climate aid pledges being met. The question over how much finance was provided under the “fast-start” program has the potential to undermine trust between donor and recipient nations during two weeks of Doha talks. “We can’t say if it was delivered or not because we can’t be sure,” said an envoy who speaks for a bloc of African nations referring to the $30 billion pledge. link

December 2011: Climate talks end with late deal. With talks running nearly 36 hours beyond their scheduled close, UN climate talks have closed with an agreement that the chair said had "saved tomorrow, today" by forcing countries for the first time to admit that their current policies are inadequate and must be strengthened by 2015. The European Union will place its current emission-cutting pledges inside the legally-binding Kyoto Protocol, a key demand of developing countries. The agreement here has not in itself taken us off the 4C path we are on, but it has re-established the principle that climate change should be tackled through international law, not national, voluntarism." link
Getting a deal was a success, but a pitiful one - a guarantee our children will be worse off than us. The world's climate debt is soaring and postponing action threatens an environmental austerity far greater than today's economic woes. link

November 2011:Canada to withdraw from Kyoto protocol. Just a few hours after talks began in Durban, Canadian environment minister Peter Kent was confirming to reporters in the capital Ottawa that its involvement with Kyoto was over. Canada declared four years ago that it did not intend to meet its existing Kyoto Protocol commitment - to bring annual emissions in the period 2008-12 down by 6% from their 1990 level. They have in fact risen by about one-third since 1990. With 12 months notice needed to withdraw, Canada would begin formally withdrawing from the protocol in December. Russia and Japan also said they would make no further cuts. link

November 2011: Rich nations 'give up' on new treaty until 2020. Ahead of critical talks in Durban, most of the world's leading economies now privately admit that no new global climate agreement will be reached before 2016 at the earliest, and that even if it were negotiated by then, they would stipulate it could not come into force until 2020. The eight-year delay is the worst contemplated by world governments during 20 years of tortuous negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions, and comes despite intensifying warnings from scientists and economists about the rapidly increasing dangers of putting off prompt action. After the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009 ended amid scenes of chaos, governments pledged to try to sign a new treaty in 2012. The date is critical, because next year marks the expiry of the current provisions of the Kyoto protocol, the only legally binding international agreement to limit emissions. link

October 2011: The death of the Kyoto process? There seems little possibility that the summit in Durban will produce an emissions reduction agreement, meaning the world will soon lack any binding CO2 targets. Europe may soon find itself alone in the fight against global warming. link

October 2011: UN negotiators may seek to extend the Kyoto Protocol, excluding Canada, Japan and Russia, said Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate diplomat. The European Union’s conditional willingness to extend “has been exceedingly helpful by building a bridge” between developed and developing nations, said Figueres. Canada, Russia and China have all said they won’t accept new binding targets under Kyoto unless all major economies are bound. Any extension of Kyoto would still require agreement from about 200 nations at the talks, which would be a challenge to negotiate. The U.S. rejects the current UN system, which pools major economies such as China, India and Brazil with smaller developing nations in a group that has fewer commitments than developed countries. link

October 2011: World's leading companies commit to reducing emissions. The latest round of climate change talks in Panama this week may once again end in deadlock, but that has not stopped over 90 of the world's largest businesses stepping up their calls for governments to deliver an ambitious international climate change treaty. Firms are being invited to sign up to the 2ºC Challenge Communiqué. Scheduled to be formally launched on October 20 over 90 companies have already signed up to the text, including some of the world's largest firms, such as BAA, BT, Tesco, Nestle, Johnson & Johnson, Swiss Re, Shell, Toyota, and latest signatory Ricoh.Further companies are being invited to sign up and the organisers are hoping to exceed the 1,000 firms that endorsed the Copenhagen Communiqué in 2010. link

U.S. is structurally unable to ever sign up to a global climate treaty with binding targets. Where do the talks go from here? For most of the last 20 years, people worried about climate change have been trying to deal with the problem by negotiating a binding global treaty to reduce the emissions that cause it. But after years of high-profile climate talks, at Rio, Nairobi, Bali, Copenhagen, Cancun, “the negotiations haven’t got us close to that deal,” says Robert Falkner, an expert on international relations and global governance at the London School of Economics. Even Christina Figueres, the United Nations’ climate change chief, now says publicly that “this planet is not going to be saved by any big bang agreement.” “The fact is that it’s unreasonable to expect that there is going to be one large comprehensive agreement that will address all issues and will miraculously change the way that we’ve been doing things for a hundred years,” she said before the last major climate negotiations, in Cancun.

With the world on a path to a 4-degree Celsius or higher temperature rise by 2100, are the negotiations simply a waste of time and resources? Is there a better way of trying to rein in emissions and help the world’s more vulnerable people deal with the impacts of climate change? A growing number of climate experts say the answer is to try adopting a “building blocks” approach to addressing climate change. That means pushing forward with thousands of smaller international, national, regional and local efforts to address the problem while keeping the talks going to, with luck, provide a framework for all the disparate pieces down the road. “That is, I would argue, the future for climate negotiations,” Falkner said at a recent conference on climate change in the Caribbean. “It is a second-best future but one we must accept as a fact.”

Efforts to negotiate one global climate treaty, he said, face several fatal flaws. The first, as virtually everyone is aware by this point, is that the United States, the world’s second biggest carbon emitter behind China, and the biggest historical producer of the gases, is unlikely to ever join a binding climate treaty. Because of the country’s divisive politics and the need for a two-thirds vote in the Senate to ratify any international treaty, “I would argue the U.S. is structurally unable to ever sign up to a global climate treaty with binding targets,” Falkner said. link

The last round of U.N. climate talks before an annual summit in South Africa this year will be held in Panama. The inter-sessional meeting will be held in Panama City from October 1 to 7.

A leaked letter from the United Nations' climate chief suggests the Copenhagen climate summit failed because the presence of 130 world leaders paralysed decision-making and the Danish presidency backed the US and other western nations over the interests of the poor. Yvo deBoer wrote: "Inviting heads of state seemed like a good idea. But it seriously backfired, " he wrote. "Their early arrival did not have the catalytic effect that was hoped for. link

October 2012: Why climate talks may be failing. According to a new study, focusing on the 2°C goal guaranteed climate talks failure as there’s no hard evidence that any specific temperature target marks a dangerous threshold, with clear consequences for crossing it. Instead, there is plenty of evidence that more and faster warming entails greater risks of major consequences, such as the collapse of the polar ice sheets. This uncertainty, the study argues, provides an incentive for countries to be free-loaders, jumping on board with the agreement without making potentially costly emissions reductions. link

May 2012: Climate talks stall with nations 'wasting time'. The latest round of UN climate talks in Bonn, the first since last December's summit in Durban, has made little progress, with observers reporting angry exchanges between rich nations, fast-industrialising ones and those prone to climate impacts. "It's absurd to watch governments sit and point fingers and fight like little kids while the scientists explain about the terrifying impacts of climate change," said Tove Maria Ryding of Greenpeace International. link

Call for International Climate Court. Cochabamba conference closes with call for rich countries to halve greenhouse gas emissions and set up a court to punish climate crimes - link

March 2010: China and India join Copenhagen accord. Since Copenhagen, there has been confusion over how a legally binding treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved. All observers, including the UN's top climate official, Yvo de Boer, are now clear that no such deal will be signed in 2010, with a meeting in South Africa in December 2011 now seen as the earliest date. The US now appears isolated as India, China, and many other countries, firmly support the idea of continuing with the two existing UN negotiating tracks to try to achieve a consensus. link

February 2010: Fifty-five countries pledge to cut greenhouse emissions. Examination of the pledges shows that no countries have strengthened the commitments which they announced at Copenhagen and doubt that a deal can be agreed in 2010 still exists. link

January 2010: Investors with $13 trillion in assets call for governments rules.
The world's largest investors issue a statement calling on the United States and other governments to "act now to catalyze development of a low-carbon economy and to attract the vast amount of private capital necessary for such a transformation." Some 85% of the financial resources needed to cope with climate challenges must come from private sources. The U.S., European and Australian investor groups, who together represent $13 trillion in assets, called for "a price on carbon emissions" and "well-designed carbon markets" to provide "a cost-effective way of achieving emissions reductions." link